To forecast the Roberts vote we use two-dimensional DW-NOMINATE coordinates for the 108th Senate. Coordinates for the newly elected Senators (Salazar (D-CO), Martinez (R-FL), Isakson (R-GA), Obama (D-IL), Vitter (R-LA), Burr (R-NC), Coburn (R-OK), DeMint (R-SC), Thune (R-SD)) were obtained by running W-NOMINATE on the combined roll matrix for the 108th Senate and roll calls for the 109th through the end of July. The 91 Senators who served in both the 108th and 109th were used in a simple OLS to obtain the mapping of the W-NOMINATE coordinates into the DW-NOMINATE 108th coordinates. These are the coordinates shown in the graph below. (Note that we show the 2nd dimension unweighted for purposes of clarity!)

Below are the positions of the Judiciary Committee members and those Senators who either announced on or before 22 September 2005.

Announced Before Sep 21

Announced Sep 22

____________________________________________________________________________________

MINNESO

R

COLEMAN

YES

WISCONS

D

FEINGOLD

YES

MAINE

R

COLLINS

YES

ILLINOI

D

DURBIN

NO

PENNSYL

R

SPECTER

YES

NEW YOR

D

SCHUMER

NO

NEVADA

D

REID

NO

CALIFOR

D

FEINSTEIN

NO

MONTANA

D

BAUCUS

YES

WISCONS

D

KOHL

YES

RHODE I

R

CHAFEE

YES

ARKANSA

D

PRYOR

YES

OREGON

R

SMITH  GORD

YES

 

 

 

 

CALIFOR

D

BOXER

NO

 

 

 

 

NEW JER

D

CORZINE

NO

 

 

 

 

NEW JER

D

LAUTENBERG

NO

 

 

 

 

MASSACH

D

KENNEDY  ED

NO

 

 

 

 

MASSACH

D

KERRY  JOHN

NO

 

 

 

 

VERMONT

D

LEAHY

YES

 

 

 

 

NEW MEX

D

BINGAMAN

YES

 

 

 

 

SOUTH D

D

JOHNSON

YES

 

 

 

 

NEBRASK

D

NELSON  BEN

YES

 

 

 

 

MAINE

R

SNOWE

YES

 

 

 

 


 

SOURCES

 

 

 

 

 

COLEMAN

http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/news/12654455.htm

 

COLLINS

http://www.boston.com/news/local/maine/articles/2005/09/18/collins_to_back_supreme_court_nominee/

SPECTER

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/19/AR2005091900988.html

REID

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-092005roberts_lat,0,1497382.story?coll=la-home-headlines

BAUCUS

http://www.sptimes.com/2005/09/21/Worldandnation/Roberts_has_one_sure_.shtml

CHAFEE

http://www.projo.com/news/content/projo_20050921_judge21.12fedaad.html

 

SMITH  GORD

http://www.kgw.com/sharedcontent/APStories/stories/D8CO96FO2.html

 

BOXER

http://abclocal.go.com/kfsn/story?section=state&id=3464968

 

CORZINE

http://www.civilrights.org/issues/nominations/details.cfm?id=35888

 

LAUTENBERG

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newjersey/ny-bc-nj--roberts-njsenator0921sep21,0,1591424.story?coll=ny-region-apnewjersey

KENNEDY  ED

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=afRnjGOSJIt4&refer=us

KERRY  JOHN

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=afRnjGOSJIt4&refer=us

LEAHY

http://www.vermontguardian.com/national/0904/LeahyVote.shtml

 

BINGAMAN

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05265/575838.stm

 

 

 

JOHNSON

http://www.aberdeennews.com/mld/aberdeennews/news/12703158.htm

 

NELSON  BEN

http://news.google.com/news?q=Bingaman%20roberts&hl=en&lr=&safe=off&sa=N&tab=wn

SNOWE

http://www.boston.com/news/local/maine/articles/2005/09/21/snowe_to_back_supreme_court_nominee/

FEINGOLD

http://www.wisinfo.com/northwestern/news/local/stories/update_22711005.shtml

DURBIN

http://www.fosters.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050922/NEWS0102/50922008

SCHUMER

http://www.fosters.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050922/NEWS0102/50922008

FEINSTEIN

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=1149049

 

 

 

KOHL

http://www.wisinfo.com/northwestern/news/local/stories/update_22711005.shtml

PRYOR

http://www.fosters.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050922/NEWS0102/50922008

 



How The Democrats Voted

ID State DWNOM_1 DWNOM_2 Vote(1=Yea, 6=Nay) 40301 42 ARKANSA 100 PRYOR -0.267 0.858 1 29305 42 ARKANSA 100 LINCOLN -0.217 0.576 1 15011 71 CALIFOR 100 BOXER -0.601 -0.231 6 49300 71 CALIFOR 100 FEINSTEIN -0.338 -0.147 6 40500 62 COLORAD 100 SALAZAR -0.278 0.475 1 14213 1 CONNECT 100 DODD -0.413 -0.089 1 Error 15704 1 CONNECT 100 LIEBERMAN -0.335 -0.166 1 Error 14101 11 DELAWAR 100 BIDEN -0.327 -0.068 6 15015 11 DELAWAR 100 CARPER -0.247 -0.006 1 14651 43 FLORIDA 100 NELSON CLA -0.320 0.153 1 14400 82 HAWAII 100 AKAKA -0.502 0.268 6 4812 82 HAWAII 100 INOUYE -0.362 0.241 6 15021 21 ILLINOI 100 DURBIN -0.538 -0.044 6 40502 21 ILLINOI 100 OBAMA -0.473 0.034 6 49901 22 INDIANA 100 BAYH -0.258 0.169 6 Error 14230 31 IOWA 100 HARKIN -0.532 0.052 6 49702 45 LOUISIA 100 LANDRIEU -0.232 0.525 1 14440 52 MARYLAN 100 MIKULSKI -0.453 0.256 6 13039 52 MARYLAN 100 SARBANES -0.541 0.042 6 10808 3 MASSACH 100 KENNEDY ED -0.566 -0.313 6 14920 3 MASSACH 100 KERRY JOHN -0.458 -0.195 6 29732 23 MICHIGA 100 STABENOW -0.471 0.152 6 14709 23 MICHIGA 100 LEVIN CARL -0.492 0.175 1 Error 40101 33 MINNESO 100 DAYTON -0.543 0.470 6 14203 64 MONTANA 100 BAUCUS -0.154 0.305 1 40103 35 NEBRASK 100 NELSON BEN -0.055 0.723 1 15054 65 NEVADA 100 REID -0.381 0.537 6 40104 12 NEW JER 100 CORZINE -0.613 -0.318 6 14914 12 NEW JER 100 LAUTENBERG -0.538 -0.342 6 14912 66 NEW MEX 100 BINGAMAN -0.319 0.227 1 40105 13 NEW YOR 100 CLINTON -0.496 -0.016 6 14858 13 NEW YOR 100 SCHUMER -0.426 -0.165 6 15502 36 NORTH D 100 CONRAD -0.296 0.822 1 14812 36 NORTH D 100 DORGAN -0.341 0.780 1 14871 72 OREGON 100 WYDEN -0.362 -0.188 1 Error 29142 5 RHODE I 100 REED -0.562 -0.042 6 15425 37 SOUTH D 100 JOHNSON -0.334 0.475 1 14307 6 VERMONT 100 LEAHY -0.479 -0.034 1 Error 39310 73 WASHING 100 CANTWELL -0.407 -0.287 6 49308 73 WASHING 100 MURRAY -0.408 -0.128 1 Error 1366 56 WEST VI 100 BYRD ROBER -0.311 0.822 1 14922 56 WEST VI 100 ROCKEFELLER -0.423 0.309 1 Error 49309 25 WISCONS 100 FEINGOLD -0.861 -0.517 1 Error 15703 25 WISCONS 100 KOHL -0.381 -0.266 1 Error